US Ethanol Blend Rates Hit Record for Second Consecutive Month

1 hour ago

0 4 minutes read

By Fernando Mares | Journalist & Industry Analyst – Fri, 09/04/2026 – 12:36 Idioma Leer en Español DIA assistant 1.0x ✕

US ethanol blend rates reached a record 10.58% in June, demonstrating how binding blending mandates and tradable compliance credits drive downstream renewable fuel adoption. While Mexico’s 2025 Biofuels Law established a foundational legal structure, the lack of secondary enforcement mechanisms leaves domestic market development dependent on subnational leadership. Projects like Tamaulipas' US$300 million sorghum-to-ethanol hub illustrate how regional authorities, SENER, PEMEX, and agricultural producers are leveraging cross-border trade corridors to build processing infrastructure ahead of federal mandate enforcement.

_____

The average ethanol content in gasoline sold across the United States exceeded 11% for a second consecutive month in June, pushing the 12-month average blend rate to a record 10.58%, notes the US Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). This marks the highest sustained blending level recorded in the history of the domestic fuel program

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data analyzed by RFA, the growth reflects increased adoption of mid-level fuel blends such as E15 and flex fuels like E85, moving beyond the standard E10 blend that accounts for the majority of domestic gasoline sales.

Market dynamics have driven the expanded blending volume. Wholesale ethanol has traded at a discount of US$1/gal or more compared to gasoline blendstock, while Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits provided further financial incentive for fuel suppliers. Scott Richman, Chief Economist, RFA, stated that blending economics remained favorable throughout the spring and summer, prompting increased participation from consumers and fuel distributors.

Richman noted that higher ethanol integration helps mitigate fuel price pressures during periods of tight supply and high refinery utilization. Additionally, increased ethanol consumption is projected to lower the price of ethanol-associated RIN credits, which impacts compliance costs for petroleum refiners subject to RFS volume mandates.

“The response would have been even greater if legislation permanently allowing year-round sales of E15 had already been enacted. The additional volume would have helped hold down prices at the pump even more, at a time when US fuel supplies have tightened, and oil refineries have been running near full capacity,” Richman stressed.

The surge in blend rates coincides with regulatory and legislative movements aimed at expanding market access for E15. California, where annual gasoline consumption exceeds 13b gal, is currently preparing to allow E15 sales for the first time. At the federal level, legislation remains under consideration in Congress to permit year-round E15 sales nationwide. Proponents of the legislation maintain that permanent year-round authorization would lower consumer fuel costs, increase agricultural demand for grains, and simplify RFS volume compliance for refiners.

Regulatory Certainty as the Driver for Biofuel Scale

The profitability turnaround across major US refiners following record EPA blending mandates demonstrates that binding regulatory floors, rather than feedstock availability, are what unlock private capital in downstream renewable fuels, as noted in an MBN report. While Mexico established its foundational legal architecture through the March 2025 Biofuels Law, commercial-scale deployment remains unfulfilled as the market awaits specific blending obligations and secondary enforcement mechanisms.

Drawing on the US experience with tradable compliance credits, Mexican regulators can establish a predictable demand floor that shields private investment from volatile commodity spreads and incentivizes domestic processing. Aligning SENER’s permitting framework with binding blending targets will be essential to bridge the gap between Mexico’s statutory framework and active commercial participation.

Tamaulipas Targets Biofuel Hub Status

Tamaulipas is advancing a subnational strategy to establish northern Mexico’s first agricultural-based liquid biofuel platform. Backed by an estimated investment exceeding US$300 million, the plan includes constructing two ethanol production facilities in Altamira (US$100 million) and Matamoros (US$220 million), with commercial operations projected for 2028,as reported by MBN.

The plan was presented during the National Ethanol Conference in Orlando, Florida, by a delegation including Tamaulipas Minister of Energy Development Walter Jiménez, alongside representatives from SENER, PEMEX, and the Mexican Petroleum Institute (IMP). To build technical collaboration, the state's energy ministry signed a memorandum of understanding with the US Grains Council in September 2025.

The industrialization of sorghum surpluses across key producing municipalities, including San Fernando, Diaz Ordaz, Abasolo, González, Ciudad Mante, Ciudad Victoria, and Altamira, aims to add value to crops grown across 700,000ha to 1 million ha. These agricultural areas account for over 50% of Mexico's total sorghum cultivation. Alongside the sorghum-to-ethanol plants, authorities confirmed that plans are moving forward for a biorefinery to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

“[Subnational governments’] ability to bring together stakeholders, attract investment, link academia and industry, and generate territorial identity makes them key pieces in the energy puzzle. It is not about replacing the federation, but rather, complementing it and adding capacity,” said Guillermo Gómez, CEO, Consultoría Sustentable G2H, in an MBN Expert Contributor piece.